The GOP Field Day Two: Tim Pawlenty

Today I will talk about my personal favorite candidate for the GOP presidential nomination, ex-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty (or T-Paw, as his Minnesota supporters like to call him) has yet to announce his candidacy for the presidential election, but his constant presence in New Hampshire and Iowa touting his "book tour" sends a strong signal that he will be throwing his hat into the ring sometime soon. Expect to see this relatively unknown, soft-spoken candidate ratchet up his rhetoric as the primary race heats up, as it’s the only way Pawlenty will be able to keep up with the likes of Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney.

Healthcare and the Economy

This is where Pawlenty’s biggest strength lies, due to his largely successful tenure as governor of blue-leaning Minnesota. During his eight years as Governor, Pawlenty has gained major acclaim for creating and maintaining a balanced budget in the state while providing basic services to his constituents. One of his most successful endeavors is his reform of Minnesota’s healthcare system. His system of market-driven healthcare reform and Medicaid overhaul effectively expanded coverage while cutting down costs to consumers in the state. With a little research you can learn more about his reforms, but politically speaking, the measures he has enacted are considered largely successful at both expanding coverage and containing costs in the long run. Unlike Romney, Tim’s plan contains few similarities to Obama’s national healthcare overhaul and is much more palatable for Conservatives to stomach. Expect this to be a major focus point of his campaign, especially when debating against men like Romney.

On budget issues T-Paw also has a fairly positive track record, providing a balanced budget in a blue-state with a House controlled by Democrats. Fiscal hawks will relish the fact that Pawlenty stuck to his mantra of fiscal responsibility when faced with tough opposition and moderate Republicans will look positively on his ability to work with Democrats to get a deal done that appeals to everyone. The key for Tim is to make his budget accomplishments known to the rest of the world, campaign on a mix of fiscal austerity and compromise that can appeal to a broad range of voters, and he will have a distinct chance not only in the primary but in a face off against President Obama as well.

The Social Issues

One of the most polarizing factors about Pawlenty is that he is an Evangelical Christian, and consequently a strong social conservative. Across the gauntlet Pawlenty is staunchly pro-life, anti-abortion, and strongly opposes both the recognition of gay marriage and the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. While these stances will help him in the primary, where a large bloc of voters are Southern Evangelical Christians, his social views may make his bid to win over independents and moderate Republicans very difficult. I Expect Pawlenty to campaign hard on his social morality during the primary season, but if he manages to win the nomination there will be a major shift in his focus from social conservatism to fiscal conservatism for the general election. T-Paw’s best chance to win over the middle ground is to follow in Mike Huckabee’s steps when speaking about social issues, and focus the attention on family values and the strength of a household. If Pawlenty can keep the focus on rebuilding the traditional American family instead of paying direct attention to the issues of abortion and gay rights, he may be able to sidestep some of the criticism he will get from the left.

Jobs and Foreign Policy

On the topic of job creation, Pawlenty can once again turn to his tenure as Governor to highlight success. Early on during his first term as Governor, Tim advocated for “investing in the future of Minnesota”, which included a corporate tax cut, tax credits for Research and Development, and an increase in competitiveness in both the domestic healthcare sector and international free trade. The results of his jobs creation bill were very successful, and led to a passage of another bill just last year, using money from the stimulus package to lower taxes on businesses. In 2005, Pawlenty became the first Governor to independently meet with China, and as a result established a trade partnership directly between the state and the powerful nation, a move that brought jobs and investment to the state, which has helped it keep a balanced budget and get through the recession better than most.

Unlike most of the other candidates who make broad claims about decreasing taxes to boost spending, Pawlenty can use his track record to back up specific proposals to benefit the economy. I am a big fan of his idea to reduce the corporate tax on “repatriation”, which is essentially bringing money made abroad back into the United States. The United States currently has an average repatriation tax rate of 32%, well above any other developed nation (the average is 15%). Lowering this rate will increase government revenues, as more corporations will be willing to bring their money back to the United States, and studies have shown lowering the rate just 7% to 25% would provide almost $60 billion in additional revenue every year. Pawlenty has the advantage of already enacting a program like this in Minnesota, and can attest to its success when campaigning on the issue.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Unlike Newt Gingrich who has a dubious moral history, Haley Barbour and the concerns against his insensitivity to racial issues, or Sarah Palin who is a loud, polarizing figure, Pawlenty is one of the only candidates carrying no known baggage into the race. In fact, most people who meet him or hear him speak say his biggest drawback is that he is “too nice”, and he doesn’t have the fire in his belly to make a presidential run. Even though T-Paw seems to be a likeable fellow, his soft voice and laid-back demeanor puts him at a disadvantage, and many experts worry that he will not be able to raise enough money to go up against deep pocketed candidates like Palin or Gingrich. His current book tour will be an excellent indicator for his hopes in a presidential run. If he is able to generate some buzz and get some support in key states, then things bode well for the ex-Governor from Minnesota. If not, then Pawlenty has a long battle ahead of him. Only time will tell.