Are We Headed for Another Middle Eastern War?

Long overdue, the UN finally agreed last night to create and enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, as well as preparing airstrikes and a potential military invasion to support the rapidly deteriorating rebel forces fighting against Muammar Gaddafi’s oppressive government. Unfortunately for everybody involved (except Gaddafi of course) this move is about two weeks behind later then it should have been, and now instead of coming in to finish off government forces on the tide of growing resistance, the international community has to come in and take over the bulk of the battle for the critically weakened rebel army. Now the Europeans and United States not are not only putting more lives in danger than was necessary, but they run the risk of once again being seen as invaders, and alienating themselves from the rebel cause.

Don’t get me wrong, I still think intervening in Libya is a good idea. Anytime a leader so openly snubs the international community and freely massacres his people, the developed nations need to put together some sort of meaningful response lest they risk losing any kind of credibility they still cling to as protectors of human rights. But Americans can rest assured that the last thing the White House wants to see right now is for the United States military to get involved on the ground of another Middle Eastern Nation, especially one where full-scale civil war is so likely. That being said, I do expect the US to participate in airstrikes, and possibly send peacekeeping troops in as part of a UN coalition, but I see it as highly unlikely that President Obama will make the decision to send a serious number of troops and supplies in for another “nation rebuilding” fiasco.

When all the potential outcomes are weighed, I give it a 15% chance that the United States get seriously involved in a ground war in Libya. The most likely causes for this would be the kidnapping of US reporters, some sort of terrorist attack, or if the Iranians decide to get involved in the battle. Minus any kind of serious change in the situation such as these, I believe the United States will try to avoid a serious ground war at all costs. The lessons learned in Iraq have shown that the United States does not have the money, nor the patience to put up with another long, costly war, and any politician who agrees to enter another war has little hope of getting reelected.

The next few weeks should be very interesting to see how the UN is able to handle this crisis. The UN’s mixed track record in dealing with rogue leaders predicts that this intervention could be a smashing success for the defense of human rights and the promotion of democracy, or it could be a catastrophic failure. Either way I wish the Libyan rebels, and the UN forces safe travels and may this situation be settled as quickly and easily as possible.