The GOP Field Day Two: Tim Pawlenty

Today I will talk about my personal favorite candidate for the GOP presidential nomination, ex-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty (or T-Paw, as his Minnesota supporters like to call him) has yet to announce his candidacy for the presidential election, but his constant presence in New Hampshire and Iowa touting his "book tour" sends a strong signal that he will be throwing his hat into the ring sometime soon. Expect to see this relatively unknown, soft-spoken candidate ratchet up his rhetoric as the primary race heats up, as it’s the only way Pawlenty will be able to keep up with the likes of Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney.

Healthcare and the Economy

This is where Pawlenty’s biggest strength lies, due to his largely successful tenure as governor of blue-leaning Minnesota. During his eight years as Governor, Pawlenty has gained major acclaim for creating and maintaining a balanced budget in the state while providing basic services to his constituents. One of his most successful endeavors is his reform of Minnesota’s healthcare system. His system of market-driven healthcare reform and Medicaid overhaul effectively expanded coverage while cutting down costs to consumers in the state. With a little research you can learn more about his reforms, but politically speaking, the measures he has enacted are considered largely successful at both expanding coverage and containing costs in the long run. Unlike Romney, Tim’s plan contains few similarities to Obama’s national healthcare overhaul and is much more palatable for Conservatives to stomach. Expect this to be a major focus point of his campaign, especially when debating against men like Romney.

On budget issues T-Paw also has a fairly positive track record, providing a balanced budget in a blue-state with a House controlled by Democrats. Fiscal hawks will relish the fact that Pawlenty stuck to his mantra of fiscal responsibility when faced with tough opposition and moderate Republicans will look positively on his ability to work with Democrats to get a deal done that appeals to everyone. The key for Tim is to make his budget accomplishments known to the rest of the world, campaign on a mix of fiscal austerity and compromise that can appeal to a broad range of voters, and he will have a distinct chance not only in the primary but in a face off against President Obama as well.

The Social Issues

One of the most polarizing factors about Pawlenty is that he is an Evangelical Christian, and consequently a strong social conservative. Across the gauntlet Pawlenty is staunchly pro-life, anti-abortion, and strongly opposes both the recognition of gay marriage and the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. While these stances will help him in the primary, where a large bloc of voters are Southern Evangelical Christians, his social views may make his bid to win over independents and moderate Republicans very difficult. I Expect Pawlenty to campaign hard on his social morality during the primary season, but if he manages to win the nomination there will be a major shift in his focus from social conservatism to fiscal conservatism for the general election. T-Paw’s best chance to win over the middle ground is to follow in Mike Huckabee’s steps when speaking about social issues, and focus the attention on family values and the strength of a household. If Pawlenty can keep the focus on rebuilding the traditional American family instead of paying direct attention to the issues of abortion and gay rights, he may be able to sidestep some of the criticism he will get from the left.

Jobs and Foreign Policy

On the topic of job creation, Pawlenty can once again turn to his tenure as Governor to highlight success. Early on during his first term as Governor, Tim advocated for “investing in the future of Minnesota”, which included a corporate tax cut, tax credits for Research and Development, and an increase in competitiveness in both the domestic healthcare sector and international free trade. The results of his jobs creation bill were very successful, and led to a passage of another bill just last year, using money from the stimulus package to lower taxes on businesses. In 2005, Pawlenty became the first Governor to independently meet with China, and as a result established a trade partnership directly between the state and the powerful nation, a move that brought jobs and investment to the state, which has helped it keep a balanced budget and get through the recession better than most.

Unlike most of the other candidates who make broad claims about decreasing taxes to boost spending, Pawlenty can use his track record to back up specific proposals to benefit the economy. I am a big fan of his idea to reduce the corporate tax on “repatriation”, which is essentially bringing money made abroad back into the United States. The United States currently has an average repatriation tax rate of 32%, well above any other developed nation (the average is 15%). Lowering this rate will increase government revenues, as more corporations will be willing to bring their money back to the United States, and studies have shown lowering the rate just 7% to 25% would provide almost $60 billion in additional revenue every year. Pawlenty has the advantage of already enacting a program like this in Minnesota, and can attest to its success when campaigning on the issue.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Unlike Newt Gingrich who has a dubious moral history, Haley Barbour and the concerns against his insensitivity to racial issues, or Sarah Palin who is a loud, polarizing figure, Pawlenty is one of the only candidates carrying no known baggage into the race. In fact, most people who meet him or hear him speak say his biggest drawback is that he is “too nice”, and he doesn’t have the fire in his belly to make a presidential run. Even though T-Paw seems to be a likeable fellow, his soft voice and laid-back demeanor puts him at a disadvantage, and many experts worry that he will not be able to raise enough money to go up against deep pocketed candidates like Palin or Gingrich. His current book tour will be an excellent indicator for his hopes in a presidential run. If he is able to generate some buzz and get some support in key states, then things bode well for the ex-Governor from Minnesota. If not, then Pawlenty has a long battle ahead of him. Only time will tell.

The GOP Field Day One: Newt Gingrich

Today marks the beginning of our new special report, a breakdown of all the potential candidates for the Republican Nomination for the 2012 election. Every few days I’ll pick a potential candidate, give you the rundown on his views and what he stands for, and give you my personal opinion them. Our first will be the only candidate who has made legitimate first steps to pursuing a primary campaign, Newt Gingrich. Newt is certainly an interesting candidate in the upcoming elections, a long-time political insider who once fought a budget battle against President Clinton as Speaker of the House, Newt has considerable experience working in our nation’s capital, experience that may help him raise funds and garner political support but hurt him with the conservative anti-incumbent right. Gingrich also has quite a few issues to address in his personal life. But first let’s take a look at his stance on some of the major issues:

The Economy
          Like many of the fiscally conservative candidates considering primary runs, Gingrich has made it a point to go on record saying he has always opposed the stimulus package and the bailouts of the auto companies. Even before the Gingrich Congress of the mid-90s, Newt has been a staunch believer in low taxes, less government regulation and less public spending to let the economy grow. At a time like this, where the growing federal budget is on everyone’s mind and fiscal conservatism is the way to go, these Reaganesque views may serve him well in both the primary and the general election.

This current battle over the debt ceiling and the attempts to curb federal spending is hauntingly familiar to Gingrich, who found himself in the same position 15 years ago that Speaker Boehner does now. Newt’s eventual mishandling of the situation, and public complaining about President Clinton’s “insult” aboard Air Force One delivered a crushing blow to both his budget battle and his popularity at the time. Expect to see this mentioned a lot against him in the coming months. The key is to see how he handles these criticisms, is he able to spin the insults and turn the situation 15 years ago into valuable experience he would bring to the White House. I for one am skeptical he can overcome the negative image he exacerbated as Speaker of the House.

Education

In 2007 Newt Gingrich was recorded as saying America’s high schools are obsolete, that for a nation that spends so much money on education we are rapidly losing our competitive edge in the global sphere. Gingrich supports the creation of charter schools in areas where public schools are failing, and the use of private sponsored scholarships to help exceptional students get by in schools that are “hopeless”. He also supports a Constitutional Amendment for school prayer and proposes that only schools which allow prayer in school can be eligible for public funding. His ideas are party-line conservative and will serve him just fine in a primary, but in the absence of a new or cutting edge idea these views will not help him win over any moderates in the general election.

The only potential revolutionary ideas he has put forth for education is an incentive program he wants to test where upper-level students are given an economic reward for taking more difficult classes in math and science. The idea of promoting educational excellence will appeal to a broad base of voters, but may hurt him with the budget hawks. The idea is still untested and may not even be a factor in the coming campaign.

On the social issues, Newt is a party-line conservative. He is pro-gun, anti gay marriage, and pro-life. No big surprise there, it’s going to be extremely difficult for any moderate Republican to stand a legitimate chance at winning a primary with the menacing Tea Party force out there.

Ups and Downs

Gingrich has a few things working in his favor as he enters the field. He is a political insider, and has many friends on and around Capitol Hill. Because of this he should have no problem raising plenty of money for his campaign, and getting endorsements from other politicians and interest groups around the nation. He knows how to run a Federal campaign, and has not been known to flip-flop on many issues. There are also still some who were very pleased with his job as Speaker and would jump at the chance to support him in a presidential run.

While he may have the experience that comes with being a long-time lobbyist and politician, he also has the baggage that comes with public scandals that sour his past. Newt is on his third wife, and has not been faithful to the women he has been married to in the past. He can claim a conversion to Christianity opened his eyes all he want, he is going to have a hard time convincing the evangelical right that he is a moral individual. Compound that with his image of being a petty fool during the budget battle against President Clinton, and this could be a long eventful race for the ex-Speaker.